Jobs and Infrastructure Investments Finally Kick In: Is It Too Late?
Will Trump's running mate expand the base, or solidify it?
Back in 2016, I was intrigued by the inspiring story of a young man from rural Ohio. Raised by his grandparents, his childhood was characterized by family turbulence and substance abuse. Yet after serving in the military, he used the G.I. bill to complete college and earn a law degree from Yale University.
When I read that he was the keynote speaker at the Waitt Lecture Series at Morningside University in Sioux City in late 2017, I called my sister, who lives nearby, and she agreed to meet me at this free lecture.
The auditorium filled up quickly and the audience listened intently to his story. The 32-year-old explained how he had written a book in 2016 to shed light on why rural Ohioans felt that the rising tide buoying Americans had not lifted their boats, leading them to vote for Trump. During the Q & A, he replied to a question about Trump. "I don't see Trump offering many solutions," he said. In a 2012 text message, he had declared, "I'm a Never Trumper", venturing so far as to message to a former college roommate that Trump "might be America's Hitler". The young man became a hero to the "coastal elites," writing a series of New York Times Op-Ed columns, and as a guest commentator on CNN.
In 2020, I also saw the movie based on his book, and was impressed when he talked about starting a nonprofit organization to address Ohio's opioid crisis.
He even praised former President Barack Obama. “For at a pivotal time in my life, Barack Obama gave me hope that a boy who grew up like me could still achieve the most important of my dreams,” he wrote. “For that, I’ll miss him, and the example he set.”
Of course, as you've recognized by now, that young man was J.D. Vance. It was back in the Hillbilly Elegy days when he had a pre-beard baby-face, and a largely unknown persona. Today at 39 years old, he's still young. But Senator J.D. Vance is one of the main contenders to be Trump's vice-presidential running mate.
Changing His Tune on Trump
Vance wasn't given much chance of winning election to the Senate two years ago. But after his full-throated apology to Trump, he received a coveted endorsement, and defeated Democrat incumbent Tim Ryan. Vance only has two years of experience in Congress, and lacks much of a business resume. If he doesn't receive the nod to run as vice president, he still could well be the future of the MAGA movement. But if he does run, Vance would be well positioned as the Republican presidential candidate in 2028, since Trump cannot serve more than one term. He echoes Trump's Populist message, opposing aid to Ukraine as well as Covid vaccines and restrictions. He's been a prodigious fundraiser for Trump.
Yet, Vance also has emerged as a serious contender because of his appeal to working class voters as well as educated suburban voters. As some point out, he may be especially crucial to "left-behind" voters in the Rust Belt.
"Left behind" counties are defined as areas with reduced population and income growth, compared to the national average. They can be rural, urban, or suburban, but 90% are rural, and manufacturing job losses are a common denominator. Their residents often live in economic situations that diverge from their expectations during their childhood. This heightens feelings that the system is no longer working.
In 2016, Trump promised to be their champion. However, a recent study would appear to undermine J.D. Vance's potential economic case for Trump. Released this week by the Economic Innovation Group, a think tank studying economic stress in the U.S., the report shows that in terms of job growth, three out of the four worst years since the Great Recession occurred during Trump's watch. In fact, more growth has occurred in left-behind counties under the Biden administration. These counties have added jobs five times faster in the last three years under Biden than in the first three years of Trump.
Almost half of these counties have regained the jobs lost during the Covid downturn. The hemorrhaging of residents leaving for better jobs has slowed. New business start-ups have increased.
This is especially true in the Midwest and Southeast, where there's been significant investment and job growth since 2021, in contrast to recent decades. From 2009 to 2016, Bay County, Michigan lost 8% of its businesses. Since 2020, it's gained 12%.
Biden Got the Jobs Done
Why are rural left-behind counties leading the post-pandemic job recovery? David Madland, author of Hollowed Out: Why the Economy Doesn't Work without a Strong Middle Class, attributes much of it to the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment & Jobs Act.
Trump claimed to be a big infrastructure supporter, and kept promising to spend $2 trillion to rebuild the country's crumbling infrastructure. But he never was able to pass the legislation. Infrastructure Week became a running joke.
So far, Madland, a senior fellow at the independent, nonpartisan Center for American Progress, says construction of manufacturing facilities has been driving this growth, but he expects manufacturing jobs will come. Repairing old infrastructure has created jobs, along with investments in industries positioned for future growth, including chips, semiconductor, and green energy.
Biden also has asked companies receiving federal funds to provide a plan for "good" jobs. Median wages in Iowa increased to $21.32 per hour in 2022 from $19.19 in 2021, but a new report by the nonprofit Oxfam America shows a quarter of working Iowans make less than $15.17 per hour. No state has kept its minimum wage at the federal floor of $7.25, longer than Iowa. Higher wages can boost consumption, but locally set minimums in five Iowa counties were repealed by Iowa legislators in 2017.
Inequalities Build Uber-Partisan Divides
These counties leading the post-Covid recovery are solidly Republican counties, of course. Residents living there often don't realize recent improvements originated from explicit public policy. Much of the growth is initiated by private industries that chose to invest because of tax credits. There are few markers identifying U.S. tax dollars are at work.
Reinforcing this lack of awareness is that the federal funding passed three years ago is being funneled through the states. We've seen in Iowa how Republicans who voted against the bipartisan Infrastructure legislation and other similar laws love to take credit for passing out this money to their constituents. Rep. Marianette Miller-Meeks, who voted against the infrastructure law, has attended ribbon-cutting ceremonies touting the funding for a highway interchange as well as a locks and dams upgrade on the Mississippi River.
However, political polarization is another reason; after all, the funds are distributed by an administration villainized daily on Fox News. At the J.D. Vance Waitt Lecture, my sister and I recognized a former high school friend with her husband, who grew up in a neighboring rural community. He wasn't a farmer, and I had never met him. As we chatted, he made a comment that young men were struggling, and seemed to imply that women were to blame. I flippantly replied that I wasn't too worried, since men had had it pretty good for a long time. Suddenly, this guy grabbed my forearm, twisting it, growling, "Are ya blue?"
Finally, a major problem is the significant inflation in 2021 and 2022 and higher interest rates imposed to bring down that inflation have made an imprint on Americans. In 1992 I wrote an eight-page article called "Diminished Expectations," based on a survey of 3,500 Successful Farming subscribers. Communities left behind decades ago will need more than a couple of years of growth.
During the past year, wages finally are growing faster than inflation, but there's a lagging effect before this sinks in.
Bottom-up and Middle-Out
In his book, Madland says the middle class is "a core component of future economic growth". A strong middle class also can counter the influences of vested interests on government, and make it function better by exerting pressure to focus on the public interest. A weak middle class also is bad for the economy. The extremely wealthy don't need to start new businesses, and Americans who are broke can't get loans to start new businesses.
The trickle-down theory of cutting taxes for the wealthy to strengthen the middle class has failed. During Biden's press conference this past week, he reiterated his strategy of growing the country from the bottom up and the middle out. It appears to be working.
No one knows which of the eager sycophants will be tapped to accept former vice president Pence's position, with all its exciting fringe benefits ("Hang Mike Pence!")
But one thing is for sure: creating jobs, fixing aging infrastructure, and investing in manufacturing and clean energy aren't Trump priorities. This fledging growth would stall out if he were elected, and these policies would wither on the vine. The U.S. House already has attempted to repeal or eliminate tax incentives for green energy investments. What does Project 2025 say about strengthening the middle class?
People in both political parties are known for voting against their own economic interests. I've lived most of my life around so-called "left-behind" voters. We work together in our communities, cheer for each other's children at school events, and help one another out at the county fair. There are no suburbs here for people to self-segregate, and as a result, we get to know people in a more well-rounded way. It doesn't accomplish anything to demonize an entire group of people based on demographics.
Collectively, 13 million swing state residents live in left-behind counties. (Think Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.) This new economic story of growth has been uneven. But half of Georgia's counties had rebounded, and surpassed their pre-Covid job levels by 2023.
Our existential challenge today is to get out the message that long-term investments in jobs and infrastructure are making a difference in places where there no longer are local newspapers, and Fox News is the primary source of information.
Good piece - and good scoop!
Thank you Cheryl for your insightful research. How did you react to the forearm grab? I would have found that situation very difficult.