Mostly Cloudy Forecast with Headwinds

Protecting Americans from Supercells AND Sleeper Cells

Photo by NOAA on Unsplash

Even as a kid growing up on an Iowa farm, I knew the weather surely was the most important thing going on in the world every day! Whenever the forecast came on the radio, or TV newscast, all our conversations would immediately cease so Dad wouldn't miss a single word.

After all, if the hay was ready to bale, it was critical for Dad to know the chances of rain, the relative humidity, and the predicted temperature. Weather was a pivotal factor during planting and harvesting seasons, and a good rain just as the corn crop began to tassel would ensure excellent pollination. Our lives revolved around the weather.

Today, after farming with my husband for four decades, the weather no longer is only a focal point for farmers. It's often the lead story for all Americans - no matter their occupation or location.

In fact, earlier this week I heard our 47th president taking questions on Air Force One as he was headed to the NATO Summit in the Netherlands. It almost seemed as if he were auditioning for his next job: Meteorologist-in-Chief. He was totally preoccupied with the increasing number of supercells in the U.S.. According to Trump, Biden "let a lot of supercells in." Even more surprisingly, Trump alleged many of these supercells originated in Iran. Who knew?

Trump, of course, misspoke. He intended to blame sleeper cells (Iranian spies or terrorists) in the U.S. on former President Biden.

Human Costs of Climate Change

But maybe, just maybe, Trump has super cells on his mind for another reason. Maybe he senses that storms are brewing. The kind of stormy weather that produces powerful updrafts, deep wind shears, polar vortexes, heat domes, and flash flooding. The kind linked to a changing climate. . .

In fact, scientists predict that climate change will catapult more supercells than ever into a collision course with the U.S. Yet the Trump administration is encouraging fossil fuel burning, "Drill, Baby, drill," opening more public lands to logging, and trying to kill Biden's green energy initiatives. Using the word "supercells" instead of "sleeper cells" might have been a Freudian slip. Trump subconsciously might worry he'll allow more supercells into the U.S. than Biden ever did!

More Americans died from heat in 2023 than any year in more than two decades of weather records. 2024 was the Earth's hottest year ever. What else do we know?

· The National Climate Assessment estimates almost 1,300 people die in the U.S. annually as a result of extreme heat alone. That's only a rough estimate, due to fragmented and incomplete data collection.

· Between 1999 and 2017, there was a 3.4% annual increase in cold-related deaths year-by-year (Harvard Medical University study)

· Arizona State University research published in Nature Medicine linked large floods over the past two decades to an almost 25% increase in deaths from major causes, including cardiovascular disease, infectious diseases, and injuries.

· 2023, a catastrophic year for wildfires, caused 130 deaths in the U.S. Air quality problems and water issues stemming from toxic ash particles are likely to add more detrimental long-term health concerns.

Who needs sleeper cell assassins when the deadly forces of Nature spawning supercells are willfully left unchecked?

Changes Based on Project 2025 Models

What are Trump's initiatives in response to these increasing weather-related fatalities in the U.S.?

· Cancellation of the sixth National Climate Assessment report, and the release of its authors.

· Massive budget cuts in the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the parent of the National Weather Service. NOAA's proposed 2026 budget amounts to about 40% of its budget a year ago.

· Elimination of almost all funds for NOAA's Office of Atmospheric Research, which coordinates and conducts weather and climate research in the U.S. ($608 million in 2025; zero in 2026)

· No updates to Climate.gov after July 1; firing of its small staff.

· A workforce reduction of 560 employees, including fired probationary employees and early retirement buy-outs.

Many of these steps were forecast in the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 playbook, which takes aim at the "climate change alarm industry," and promotes the goal of privatizing weather forecasts.

Severe Weather is Bad for Business

If preventing weather-related losses of human life isn't sufficient motivation, surely economic losses should be setting off alarms? The economic implications of more extreme and violent windstorms and flooding for industries including agriculture, aviation, property insurance, energy, commercial fishing, construction, transportation, and recreation are incalculable.

Photo by Clay Banks on Unsplash

Hurricane season began June 1. Since 2007, NOAA's Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program has saved roughly $5 billion per hurricane per year (pre-landfall protective spending and post-landfall damages and recovery), based on a 2024 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research. In 2024, the National Hurricane Center set a record for the most accurate forecasts in its history.

The National Weather Service estimates accurate forecasting saves the U.S. economy about $3 billion annually across all the sectors.

Ignoring Major Risks

The mission of the National Weather Forecast Service is protecting lives and property. It's all about risk management. For at least one-half century, Weather Forecast Service offices have operated 24/7, but some will be curtailed unless staffing is restored. Fewer weather balloon launches are prompting worries that forecasts will be less accurate.

As an active hurricane season looms, the National Weather Service has received permission to hire about 125 new meteorologists and other specialists for its Forecast offices. However, these positions may not be filled until September.

The National Weather Service is pushing for approval of a more comprehensive public safety exemption from hiring freezes.

However, earlier this week, the Pentagon abruptly announced it would no longer share real-time microwave data from three weather satellites with meteorologists, scientists, and researchers through its joint program operated with NOAA. Experts predict this will increase the chances forecasters will miss rapid intensifications as well as underestimate hurricane intensity. This change begins on Monday, June 30. (For more, read Iowa Writers' Collaborative colleague Chris Gloninger's June 26 Substack, Weathering Climate Change.)

Weather is Matter of National Security

As a youngster I learned in social studies that the U.S. was blessed with great wealth and success because of our natural resources and a favorable location in the world. So many other countries, especially in the developing world, were plagued by horrific floods, droughts, hurricanes, tsunamis, and earthquakes.

Yes, Iowa had tornadoes, severe snow and ice storms, occasional droughts, and floods. California had earthquakes, torrential rainfall, and mudslides. But so much of the death and destruction across the globe seemed a distant reality.

That's why I was surprised by a 2023 headline, US leads the world in weather disasters. Experts pointed out that the U.S. is uniquely sandwiched between two oceans. It's also impacted by the hot, moist air of the Gulf of Mexico and the cooler, dry air lifted by the Rocky Mountains. On top of this, it contends with clashing storm fronts and the jet stream, and includes exposed peninsulas like Florida.

The geography of the U.S. hasn't changed since I was a social studies student. But our storm vocabulary has: Bomb cyclones, atmospheric rivers, derechos – and more!

I grew up with a healthy respect for the forces of Mother Nature. I vividly remember running to the cellar with Dad, my two siblings, and Mom, who was eight months pregnant with my younger brother. On our Boone County farm over the past 40 years, we've huddled in the basement more than once as we lost outbuildings to twisters and straight-line winds.

But don't take my word for it; roads in multiple states have buckled under the recent heat dome. More than 2,800 temperature records were broken in the Eastern U.S. last week. In St. Ann, Missouri, a 55-year-old woman died at home without air conditioning or water over three days.

This heat wave, combined with high humidity, is giving way to severe thunderstorms and high winds. Our neighbors nine miles to the south lost part of the roof from their livestock building on Wednesday night. We were totally unaware of any nearby severe wind threat. The next day, a tornado touched down in Humboldt County with little or no warning, and fortunately only minor crop damage.

As severe weather cuts a swath across the U.S. we depend on the daily routine forecasts as well as the severe weather warnings. Yet we feel more vulnerable than ever before in this current political climate.

Our elected leaders need to honestly assess scientific data and weigh the probable threats. No one wants to witness a 2019 Oval Office encore performance by Trump, acting as our national Meteorologist-in-Chief. Ignoring National Weather Service hurricane models, he used his Sharpie pen to revise the path of Hurricane Dorian on the official NOAA map to include Alabama. The outcome was sheer turbulence for Americans.

Protecting Americans and our infrastructure from supercells is at least as important of a national security objective as protecting us from sleeper cells. There's nothing political about it.

Photo by Clay Banks on Unsplash

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