Fear Not!

Blast of Hot Air Forecast for Iowa

Photo by Etienne Girardet on Unsplash

Hot on the heels of a blustery appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, President Donald Trump is taking Iowa by storm on Tuesday.

His Iowa appearance next week is billed as a stump speech on energy and the economy. However, given the rambling nature of his one-year anniversary press conference and his Davos speech, it’s anyone’s guess what he might say.

Let’s say that Trump follows the script. What will he tell Iowans he’s accomplished in the realm of energy production to benefit them? His administration announced this week the elimination of $9.5 billion in loans in wind and solar projects funded by Biden’s Green New Deal. Much of it was aimed at rural states.

I guess that rules out Trump using one of Iowa’s many wind farms as a photo backdrop while he’s here. He rarely misses an opportunity to rant about windmills, as he calls them. During his meandering speech at Davos he said there were “ineffective, money-losing windmills . . . all over Europe.” He also said that China manufactures “most all” of the windmills, but doesn’t have any. “They make them, they sell them to stupid people for a fortune,” he declared.

WRONG. China ranks as the largest global producer of wind energy. It has twice as much capacity under construction as the rest of the world combined. One of its largest wind farms, Gansu, is visible from space.

Instead, maybe Trump will change the subject to pipelines. The Dakota Access Pipeline runs within a half mile of our farm, crossing the Des Moines and continuing on its route to Illinois, and down to the Gulf of Mexico. The company was granted the state’s power of eminent domain to burrow its way through our neighbors’ farms. It fought them all the way to the Iowa Supreme Court, and won. But not a drop of that North Dakota Bakken oil is available to Iowans. No benefit here.

Possibly the President will highlight the 2026 sequel to the four-year battle between Iowa property owners and Summit Carbon Pipeline. Its route would run just north of us in Webster County. The Iowa House passed a bill Wednesday that would ban the use of eminent domain for carbon capture pipelines. It now goes to the Iowa Senate.

But that might bring ethanol to his mind. Most states cannot sell E15 from June to September without temporary emergency waivers due to air pollution regulations. Corn growers are asking for year-round E15, but the House appropriation bill passed Thursday night dropped a provision expanding E-15. A recent Iowa Corn Grower study states that E-15 and the use of corn for low-carbon marine fuels and sustainable aviation fuel could help corn production remain profitable through 2040.

The price of gasoline is now below $2.30 a gallon in most states, and Trump’s likely to take credit. He may boast that Venezuela is going to make more money in the next six months than it’s made in the last 20 years, thanks to the U.S. invasion. The outlook, however, is that it will require more than decade of work and investment before U.S. consumers benefit from the U.S.-engineered regime change.

Perhaps he’s going to tout Gov. Reynolds’ support of re-starting the Duane Arnold plant near Palo. “We are going heavy into nuclear,” Trump said at Davos.

Economic squalls

What might be a sunny economic forecast in the President’s Iowa speech? January isn’t the best month to haul out a couple of straw bales, and shoot the breeze with soybean farmers about the challenges of shoring up their bottom lines in 2026.

The USDA is sending $12 billion to crop farmers, but soybean farmers lost billions in sales to China, our top purchaser, thanks to Trump’s tariff wars. Aaron Lehman, a farmer and president of the Iowa Farmers Union, says the administration’s approach has undermined decades of investments by farmers to build relationships with overseas buyers.

At least 36% more farmers filed for bankruptcy in the first few months of 2025 than the entire year of 2024.

What about the economic downdraft in Iowa ag manufacturing? This includes John Deere’s layoffs at manufacturing facilities in Iowa and Illinois, as well as Case IH/New Holland’s closure of its Burlington construction equipment plant, known as the birthplace of the backhoe.

Perhaps the President will brag about the massive staffing cuts totaling one-fifth of USDA employees. This loss is likely to be compounded, as USDA is carved up and relocated outside of Washington, D.C. later this year. The public justification for this relocation is to bring USDA closer to farmers. Iowa already has NRCS and FSA offices in every county. How much closer could it be?

On second thought, since Trump wants to make America the crypto capital of the world, maybe he would prefer to pose in front of a crypto farm while he’s in Iowa? There might be fewer tough questions from crypto farmers.

Will the word affordability come up? Trump said at Davos that “grocery prices, energy prices, air fares, mortgage rates, rent and car payments are all coming down, and they’re coming down fast.” He boasted that his administration has “lifted more than 1.2 million people off food stamps. “ Does this mean economic conditions improved so much that people no longer need food assistance? Or, is the real story that people were dropped from SNAP because of increased work requirements, and the difficulty of re-certifying their eligibility?

Foggy Outlook

If Republicans are worried about retaining mid-term voters who are holding Trump to his America First pledge, would it be smart to address concerns about the failure to extend ACA premium tax credits? Iowans will be struggling to pay higher health insurance costs, and rural hospitals will lose money covering the increased costs of treating the uninsured. Trump’s new Great Healthcare Plan doesn’t offer immediate help for the current shortfall. It’s full of the same tired old Republican ideas offered prior to Obama Care.

No worries, if the Iowa legislature has anything to say about it, we’ll be able to go to the pharmacy and stock up on Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine without a prescription.

Here’s another idea: central Iowa has a sizeable Somali population. Most have been here for years, and they work in health care, retail and food services, manufacturing, and community service. It might be a good opportunity for Trump to apologize for his racist remarks, including calling them “garbage.”

But maybe it’s best not to bring up Somalis or the 200 students at North High School in Sioux City who walked out of class to protest ICE on the first anniversary of Trump’s inauguration. North is one of Iowa’s most racially diverse high schools, with 47 different languages spoken. We don’t need Trump to send an ICE storm down from Minnesota.

Photo by Philip Yu on Unsplash

Instead, Trump might include a shout-out to Elkhorn, home of largest rural America settlement of Danish immigrants. His bullying talk of taking over Greenland has made him incredibly unpopular with Denmark. He disparaged Danish soldiers who died in Afghanistan supporting the U.S. after 911. Denmark lost more soldiers per capita than the U.S.

Then again, while Trump is here, he might announce the release of the Epstein files – again.

Prepare for Thunderstorms

I’ve even given some thought to an appropriate parting gift for the President. He’s well known for his book, The Art of the Deal, including 11 steps to closing a deal. I’d suggest presenting him with a copy of How to Win Friends and Influence People, the best-selling self-help book by Dale Carnegie. Here are Carnegie’s seven rules:

· Never argue

· Don’t tell others they are wrong

· Admit it when you’re wrong

· Act in a friendly way

· Get the other person to say yes and agree with you

· Let others do the talking

· Let others have the ownership of ideas

“Avoid complaints, they don’t work, and make you look bad,” Carnegie advised. “Force and threats only breed resentment.” Oh, too late? Trump already acted like a Mob boss at Davos, alienating NATO allies, calling them ungrateful, and telling them they wouldn’t have a country if it weren’t for the U.S.

Possible gift trophies and medals for the President.

Here’s one final gift idea. The President seems to enjoy medals and awards. I have a few items packed away – you might call them hand-me-downs, but he doesn’t seem to mind. They could be displayed next to Maria Machado’s Nobel Peace Prize medal. My children would be willing to give up their prized trophies.

Ignore Scare Tactics

Although this word won’t share equal billing with energy and the economy, Trump is sure to hammer home one other topic while he’s here: Fear.

The world is a dangerous and chaotic place. In his book, The Culture of Fear: Why Americans Are Afraid of the Wrong Things, author Barry Glassner says the times we live in aren’t more risky than before. It’s our perception of the danger that has changed. He warns Americans against “the peddlers of fear.” When they knock at our doors, he says we need to answer two questions:

1. Who profits from scaring us?

2. Who loses when we give in to unreasonable fears?

Fear breeds mistrust of those who are different, and triggers knee-jerk reactions that often backfire. This leads to the arrest of immigrants with no criminal history and the harassment of LGBTQ and transgender Americans, as well as anti-semitism.

As a society, we pay a price for harboring unrealistic fears, such as the fear of science or vaccinations. We can’t protect ourselves in this global world by shuttering our windows and hunkering down in our homes.

Fear prevents us from prioritizing important issues with far--reaching implications for our country: food insecurity, growing inequality, climate change, regulating A.I., and reducing gun violence.

The hot air Trump brings with him wherever he goes is saturated with fear. He thrives on our fears. He seeds the cumulus clouds of our insecurity, blame, and judgment, leaving a fearful ground fog in his wake. Fear is contagious.

Tuesday’s forecast is for headwinds. But there’s no prediction of power outages, as long as we stick together. Proceed with caution, and a full tank of courage.

Photo by Iwaria Inc. on Unsplash

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